NEWS ECONOMY NEWS        23/07/2020

Turkey’s consumer confidence index decreases 2.7% to 60.9 points in July 2020

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK – TürkStat) has presented the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for July 2020 as 60.9 points, a decrease of 2.7% on the 62.6 points recorded in the previous month.


Among the sub-indices, the biggest decrease in July 2020 was in the probability of savings index which decreased by 14% to 19.9 points compared with the previous month. Despite the relaxation on the movement of the population starting in June, this savings expectation decrease no doubts reflects the increase of at least temporary unemployment and the loss of income during the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Much of the population had used up what savings they had during this period of inactivity, and feel that they will not be in a position to make savings over the next twelve months due to the need to first meet financial imbalances. It is also clear that the Turkish economy, which is still in recession, will need more time yet to normalise. The low savings index of 19.9% also reflects the low propensity of the Turkish population towards savings in general.


The consumer confidence’s sub-indices were as follows :

-   The probability of savings index decreased by 14% to 19.9 points in July 2020 compared with the previous month.

 The general economic situation expectation index decreased by 3.9% to 82.2 points in July 2020, compared with the previous month.

-   The financial situation expectation of households index increased by 0.9% to 80.6 points in July 2020, compared with the previous month. .

-   The number of people unemployed expectation index decreased by 1.7% to 61 points in July 2020, compared with the previous month.

The above indices reflect expectations over the next 12 months.


Turkey’s seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index fell from 72 points in January 2018 to 58.7 points in December 2018. During 2019, the index remained comparatively steady, with the highest figure being 63.5 points in April 2019 and the lowest figure being 55.3 in May 2019. In December 2019 the index was 58.8 points.


In Turkey, the Consumer Confidence Index survey aims to measure present situation assessments and future period expectations of consumers' on personal financial standing and general economic course and to determine consumers' expenditure and saving tendencies in the near future. The survey covers a randomly selected sample of all individuals at the age of 15 and above having a job in urban and rural areas. The index is evaluated between 0 and 200. The reading above 100 means consumers are optimistic and below 100 are pessimistic.


The current level of confidence reflects a pessimistic outlook by consumers and would need to rise above 100 to indicate optimism. The index is considered an important gauge of the overall health of the economy in that it assesses the confidence of people to spend money, which in turn is an indication of the vitality of the economy.

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