The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK – TürkStat) has presented the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for April 2020 as 54.9 points, a fall of 5.8% down from 58.2 points recorded in the previous month. The biggest drop was 13.1% in savings expectations. The very low probability of savings sub-index of 18.4 points no longer only reflects the low propensity of the Turkish population towards savings in general, but also the difficulties faced by people no longer able to work and left with no or much reduced income as a result of the current coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic has also resulted in significant falls in household financial situation expectations and employment expectations
The consumer confidence’s sub-indices were as follows :
- The probability of savings index decreased by 13.1% to 18.4 points in April 2020 compared with the previous month.
- The general economic situation expectation index decreased by 1.1% to 74.8 points in April 2020, compared with the previous month.
- The financial situation expectation of households index decreased by 7.8% to 72.5 points in April 2020, compared with the previous month. .
- The number of people unemployed expectation index decreased by 6.7% to 53.8 points in April 2020, compared with the previous month.
The above indices reflect expectations over the next 12 months.
Turkey’s seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index fell from 72 points in January 2018 to 58.7 points in December 2018. During 2019, the index remained comparatively steady, with the highest figure being 63.5 points in April 2019 and the lowest figure being 55.3 in May 2019. In December 2019 the index was 58.8 points.
In Turkey, the Consumer Confidence Index survey aims to measure present situation assessments and future period expectations of consumers' on personal financial standing and general economic course and to determine consumers' expenditure and saving tendencies in the near future. The survey covers a randomly selected sample of all individuals at the age of 15 and above having a job in urban and rural areas. The index is evaluated between 0 and 200. The reading above 100 means consumers are optimistic and below 100 are pessimistic.
The current level of confidence reflects a pessimistic outlook by consumers and would need to rise above 100 to indicate optimism. The index is considered an important gauge of the overall health of the economy in that it assesses the confidence of people to spend money, which in turn is an indication of the vitality of the economy.