The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK – TürkStat) has presented the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for February 2021 as 84.5 points, an increase of 1.5% on the 83.3 points recorded in the previous month.
The consumer confidence’s sub-indices in February 2021 are as follows :
- The financial situation of household sub-index (current situation compared to last 12 months) increased by 4.1% to 66.3 points in February 2021 compared with the previous month.
- The financial situation expectation of households sub-index (expectation over the next 12 months) increased by 0.8% to 84.5 points in February 2021, compared with the previous month.
- The general economic situation expectation sub-index (expectation over the next 12 months) increased by 4% to 91.7 points in February 2021, compared with the previous month.
- The tendency to purchase durable consumer goods sub-index (current situation compared to last 12 months) decreased by 1.9% to 95.5 points in February 2021, compared with the previous month.
The calculation of the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index was last revised in September 2020, resulting in a fundamental change in format and a higher alignment of indices. Revisions in calculations of statistics by TurkStat over the last two years have become a regular feature. This development does not allow figures produced to be meaningfully analysed in depth over time with an aim to establish economic and behavioural trends. Market analysts in particular will be adverse to using such unreliable figures as support for their economic evaluations and projections.
In Turkey, the Consumer Confidence Index survey aims to measure present situation assessments and future period expectations of consumers' on personal financial standing and general economic course and to determine consumers' expenditure and saving tendencies in the near future. The survey covers a randomly selected sample of all individuals at the age of 15 and above having a job in urban and rural areas. The index is evaluated between 0 and 200. The reading above 100 means consumers are optimistic and below 100 are pessimistic.
The current level of confidence reflects a pessimistic outlook by consumers and would need to rise above 100 to indicate optimism. The index is considered an important gauge of the overall health of the economy in that it assesses the confidence of people to spend money, which in turn is an indication of the vitality of the economy.