NEWS ECONOMY NEWS        29/09/2020

Turkey’s economic confidence index increases 3.1% in September 2020

According to figures provided by Turkey’s state statistical institution TÜİK (TurkStat), Turkey’s seasonally adjusted economic confidence index increased by 3.1% to 88.5 points in September 2020 from 85.9 points in the previous month of August. This increase follows rallies of 20.4% in May, 19.1% in June, 11.8% in July, and 4.4% in August, following an initial collapse of 44.1% in April. The recoveries of the index between May and September reflect expectations that the economy will continue to revive following the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. The 88.5 points level of the economic confidence index this month compares with the pre-pandemic 91.8 points recorded in March 2020.


In September, the consumer confidence sub-index increased 3.2% to 82 points as a result of a change in the method by which it is calculated. The revision In this sub-index will have a destabilising effect on the accurateness of the economic confidence index for September 2020. Changes in the other sub-indices are as follows: the real sector confidence sub-index increased 0.5% to 105.7 points and the services sector confidence sub-index increased 6.4% to 74.9 points, whereas and the retail trade sub-index decreased 1.5% to 93.5 points and the construction sub-index decreased 2% to 83.3 points.


Despite periodic upward revisions by TurkStat, Turkey’s economic confidence index is still below the crucial 100 points level. In Turkey, the economic confidence index is a composite index that covers encompasses consumers’ and producers’ evaluations, expectations and tendencies about the general economic situation. The index is produced by a combination of a weighted aggregation of normalized sub-indices of consumer confidence, seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction confidence indices. The economic confidence index indicates an optimistic outlook about the general economic situation when the index is above 100, and contrarily indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100. 



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