According to figures provided by Turkey’s state statistical institution TÜİK (TurkStat), Turkey’s seasonally adjusted economic confidence index recuperated by 20.4% to 61.7 points in May 2020 from 51.3 points in the previous month of April. The increase in the index following the fall of 44.1% in the previous month of April, reflects the expectations that the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic will largely be relaxed over the coming weeks.
The index was revised In January 2019 to allow for seasonal adjustments, and was further revised arbitrarily in January 2020. The revised index at the beginning of 2018 was 106.2 ponts, and this fell to a revised 82.5 points at the beginning of 2019.
The construction sub-index surged 31.1% to 58.5 points. This was followed by the real sector confidence sub-index which increased 18% to 73.5 points, the services sector confidence sub-index which increased 10.8% to 50.1 points, the consumer confidence sub-index which increased 8.5% to 59.5 points, and the retail trade confidence sub-index which increased 5% to 79 points.
Despite upward revisions, Turkey’s economic confidence index is still below the crucial 100 points level. In Turkey, the economic confidence index is a composite index that covers encompasses consumers’ and producers’ evaluations, expectations and tendencies about the general economic situation. The index is produced by a combination of a weighted aggregation of normalized sub-indices of consumer confidence, seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction confidence indices. The economic confidence index indicates an optimistic outlook about the general economic situation when the index is above 100, and contrarily indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.